Which European football league has been the most unpredictable so far?

Club football returns this weekend following the opening international break of the 2024-25 season. The break came fairly early in the campaign with most leagues just a few rounds in, but with things about to ramp up quite significantly as Champions League and Europa League fixtures are about to be added to many clubs' schedules, let's take a look at what we've seen so far.

Now it is of course very early days so it would be silly to make too many binding assumptions at this point, but with the transfer window finally closed and players now getting up to speed having missed pre-season in many cases, here's how things are looking across Europe's Top 5 leagues.

Since this is Superbru, we'll be looking at each league from a predictability standpoint based on the small amount of data we have so far. For those of you that aren't aware, all of the figures cited are now readily available for you to explore yourself on the Superbru Football app where you can view league predictability rankings, how predictable each league has been in seasons gone by and even how predictable each team has been in comparison to the others in their league.

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Serie A

Current Leaders: Inter | Result Predictability: 38%

Let's begin with the league that has had the most chaotic start to 2024-25, Serie A, which has been a bit of a nightmare for Superbru players thus far. On average, each result has been correctly predicted by just 38% of the community.

The Italian top flight may look fairly regular when first glancing at the table after 3 rounds as Inter and Juventus sit joint top of the league, but they're joined on 7 points by Torino and Udinese with Torino in particular causing some significant upsets early on.

The opening round of the campaign was a wild one with defending champions Inter conceding a late equaliser at Genoa, Antonio Conte's Napoli being battered 3-0 by Hellas Verona (Napoli have won both games since then to be fair) and AC Milan being held to a 2-2 draw by Torino.



Milan's struggles early on have been particularly surprising and the Rossoneri are still yet to win this season under new manager Paulo Fonseca. On average, just 12.5% of the Superbru community have correctly predicted Milan's results so they're a big factor in the Serie A's overall predictability rating being so low and it'll be fascinating to see how they get on this weekend against Venezia (a game they really ought to win) ahead of a tough Champions League opener vs. Liverpool a few days later.

LaLiga

Current Leaders: Barcelona | Result Predictability: 42%

Barcelona are hardly an unfamiliar name to top the LaLiga table at this early stage, but the fact that they already have a 4-point lead over the others thanks to their 100% winning record is quite surprising. Many expected another rocky season for Barca given their off-field struggles, while Real Madrid are expected to win every single game for the rest of time now that they've added Kylian Mbappe to their Champions League winning squad.

Instead, we've seen Barca pick up narrow wins over Valencia, Athletic Club and Rayo Vallecano before battering Valladolid 7-0 before the break, while Madrid have had a stuttering start outside of the Bernabeu as they've drawn both of their away games so far at Mallorca and Las Palmas.



Real Madrid's game this weekend is another away fixture and though a trip to Real Sociedad looks very tough on paper (and may well still prove to be), the San Sebastian side have been one of LaLiga's underperformers so far with with their results correctly predicted by an average of just 25% on Superbru. Real Sociedad have lost both of their home fixtures so far against Rayo Vallecano and Alaves despite being strong favourites in both, so like Real Madrid they are under slight pressure ahead of this Saturday's meeting.

Valencia and Sevilla are two other notable clubs that have struggled thus far and currently sit 20th and 19th respectively, though Valencia's results (picked by 58.9% on average) have been far more understandable than Sevilla's (25.3%) given the quality of opposition that they have faced. Garcia Pimienta will already be feeling the heat in Seville (both literally and metaphorically) as he's yet to get a win on the board since being appointed as their manager following his success with Las Palmas, though it's not an easy job as the Sevilla squad doesn't look hugely capable of improving upon last season's 14th-place finish.

Ligue 1

Current Leaders: PSG | Result Predictability: 48%

Paris Saint-Germain sitting top of Ligue 1 is always highly expected (an average of 91% have picked their opening 3 wins), but Luis Enrique's team have looked particularly strong in the early stages of this campaign and you'd have to be brave to pick against them in any of their upcoming fixtures this September including the Round 1 Champions League clash with Girona.

Based on what we've seen so far, Marseille will fancy their chances of getting back to a top 2 finish this season after a disappointing 2023-24 campaign, as things seem to be coming together quite quickly under Roberto De Zerbi despite a large number of new signings.



Nantes (results picked by 35.7% on average) have been a slight surprise package so far as they sit unbeaten in 3rd having drawn at Toulouse in Round 1 and won at Montpellier in Round 3, while Strasbourg have made a steady start under Liam Rosenior despite a very young squad full of signings that Chelsea no longer want. Rosenior has already overseen an impressive 3-1 victory over Rennes and Strasbourg only narrowly lost away at Lyon before the break in a 4-3 thriller.

Premier League

Current Leaders: Manchester City | Result Predictability: 55%

Manchester City have quickly taken their familiar place at the top of the Premier League this season, though they're joined on 9 points by rivals Liverpool who have had a magnificent start under Arne Slot. As of now, there's been no signs of the struggles many were predicting in the post-Klopp era at Liverpool, as the Reds' 0-3 win away at Manchester United before the international break (predicted by 67%) means they're still yet to concede a league goal under Slot.

With favourable home fixtures coming up and Manchester City set to face Arsenal in Round 5, the near future looks quite rosy for Liverpool as it stands.



As you'll have gathered by now in this article, the Premier League's 55% predictability rating is fairly healthy for Superbru players and lots of you have come very close to scooping our huge cash jackpot prize, but Brighton are among the teams that have done their best to make things difficult!

The Seagulls have been very strong under new manager Fabian Hurzeler, with an average of just 18.7% of the community correctly predicting their results so far which have seen an away win at Everton, a home win over Manchester United and a draw away at Arsenal last time out (predicted by just 6%).

That draw, and the red card that Declan Rice picked up during it, means Arsenal are already under pressure this season. Looking to go one better than last year and to finally get their hands back on the Premier League trophy, the Gunners are already off the pace and now face an incredibly difficult week with away matches against Tottenham, Atalanta (Champions League) and Manchester City.

Bundesliga

Current Leaders: Heidenheim | Result Predictability: 55%

It's especially early to be chatting about the Bundesliga as we're just 2 rounds into the season so you need to take the predictability % with an extra pinch of salt, but still, it's fun to see Heidenheim top of the league, right? After a decent first ever Bundesliga season last year in which they finished 8th, Heidenheim have begun this campaign with comfortable wins over St. Pauli and Augsburg. A trip to Borussia Dortmund is next on Friday night, so if they come away from that with their 100% record still in tact we can start to get excited, particularly if they get a third straight clean sheet.

Vincent Kompany has begun life at Bayern Munich with back-to-back wins over Wolfsburg and Freiburg but the biggest news of the Bundesliga season so far at this very early stage is that defending champions Bayer Leverkusen have finally lost a game! A brace from Lois Openda helped RB Leipzig to a 2-3 win at the BayArena in Round 2 which was Leverkusen's first league defeat since May 2023. Now that we know it's possible for Xabi Alonso's side to lose a Bundesliga match, perhaps that predictability % will continue to fall.



VfB Stuttgart were another team that dramatically exceeded expectations last season and they're a side to keep an eye on this year as they battle with the loss of key players such as striker Serhou Guirassy but also try and compete amid the Champions League schedule that they have earned themselves. Stuttgart were understandably favourites on Superbru for their opening games against Freiburg and Mainz 05 but failed to win either match.

Here is the League Predictability data for each of the tournaments covered on Superbru Football so far this season in a screenshot taken from the app:



Serie A being beneath the EFL Championship even at this early stage really is something because as anyone who has played the Championship Predictor will know, it's ridiculously difficult.

We'll check in on these stats throughout the season when these international breaks allow and it will be interesting to see how things develop!

Which league have you had the most successful start in with your score predictions during the first few rounds of 2024-25?