2024 Six Nations: Round 5 Predictions

As Jack reminded me this week, winning in Superbru is about picking the right upsets. Last weekend, I went for the upset pick in the only match that wasn’t an upset, and ended up with 0 out of 3 and red arrows everywhere.

My 1 out of 7 in the Super Rugby didn’t help the confidence, but it’s important to dust yourself down and get on with it, and I’m looking forward to the Six Nations finale this weekend.

Wales v Italy

This should actually be a great match, with Italy targeting a 4-try bonus point which would make it much harder for Wales to avoid the Wooden Spoon. The hosts need to match Italy’s bonus point tally, and win by 6 points or more in order to lift themselves off the bottom of the table.

They have shown glimpses of promise in the tournament so far, but heavy defeats to Ireland and France in the last two rounds won’t help their confidence, and they are playing for a proud rugby nation to avoid finishing last. Italy, however, are playing some exciting attacking rugby, almost beating France before recording their first tournament win since 2013. They’ll match Wales’ determination to avoid the Wooden Spoon, but I suspect they’ll fall just short of victory.

Home advantage should be enough for Wales to win the game, but still finish bottom. Wales by 4

Ireland v Scotland

I really can’t see any chance of an upset here, with Ireland just needing a win or draw to retain the Six Nations title, but without the Grand Slam.

Scotland will be disappointed again with their overall campaign, as they are aiming higher than just beating England, and it looks likely they will finish in the bottom half of the table. A win in Dublin would put a polish on their tournament, but also has the risk of handing the title to England, and it’s not going to happen.

In fact, I think Andy Farrell and Ireland will be livid with their defeat at Twickenham last week, and Scotland will feel the backlash. Ireland by 23

France v England

I’m finding France very difficult to predict again, having managed 1 correct pick from their 4 matches so far, and it seems we have returned to the cliche of not knowing which French team will turn up.

They still have the squad and the talent to beat anyone in the world, but at times they have looked short of ideas without Antoine Dupont, and capable of both brilliance and mediocrity in the same game.

England, meanwhile, finally gave their fans something to cheer about last weekend, playing with intent and a much clearer gameplan than we’ve seen for a long time. By the time they play, their slim hopes of winning the title will have been dashed in Dublin, but there should still be plenty of motivation to continue their positive momentum.

This is perhaps more in hope than expectation, but I’m backing an England win. England by 2

How do your predictions compare? Let us know in the comments!