2024 Six Nations: Final round permutations

Following Italy's win over Scotland in Round 4 of the Six Nations, 91% of the Superbru community were expecting an Ireland victory at Twickenham which would have sealed the Six Nations title. Instead, England's shock win in that game means it all comes down to the final round.

Ireland remain very strong favourites to retain the trophy, albeit without a Grand Slam, but other outcomes are possible. Here are the current standings along with the permutations for the final round.

The title

Ireland are highly likely to be crowned winners on Saturday, even if things don't go to plan. The fact that Andy Farrell's team have such a strong points difference means it will be difficult for anyone else to beat them to the title as long as they manage at least a point in their home game against Scotland.

• Ireland will retain the title if they win or draw against Scotland.
• If Ireland lose but still manage a bonus point - obtained by either scoring four tries in the match or by losing by no more than 7 points - they will almost certainly still win the title.
• If Ireland lose without a bonus point, England are the nation that has the best opportunity to snatch the title as a bonus point win over France would see them go top.
• Scotland and France are both all but out of contention as they need to overturn the massive points difference advantage that Ireland currently have.

Before we get to the title being decided on Saturday evening though, there's a significant game in Cardiff with Wales taking on a rapidly improving Italy side that has drawn with France and beaten Scotland in the last two rounds.

The Wooden Spoon

Italy have finished bottom of the Six Nations for each of the last 9 seasons, so there's a lot of anticipation about their trip to Cardiff considering they head to Wales currently 4 points ahead of the hosts.

The focus will be on the Wooden Spoon, but Italy could achieve far more than that if they manage a victory as there's a reasonable chance that they could finish as high as 3rd if they do come out on top which would be their greatest ever performance.

The Wooden Spoon permutations:

• If Italy win or draw, Wales will finish bottom.
• If Italy manage a bonus point, Wales must score at least four tries and overturn the points difference gap between the nations (11 points) in order to avoid the Wooden Spoon.
• If Italy fail to pick up a bonus point, Wales must win with a bonus point or win by enough to overturn the points difference margin in order to avoid the Wooden Spoon.

This weekend's final round fixtures in full:



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