The Run-In: A look at Europe's top 5 leagues
The March international break is the final stage of the season where we can pause and briefly take stock of how things are going in club football, because once things resume in just over a week, we're officially entering the 'run-in' where this season's trophies will be decided.
Here, I'll be running you through how things are looking in each of Europe's top 5 leagues that are covered on Superbru Football, while comparing them in terms of predictability based on the data available on the Superbru Football app.
Though the title races look all but settled in 3 of the 5 leagues, competition for European places remains wide open across the continent and it's interesting to see plenty of dark horses in contention for Champions League football in 2025-26.
Here's how the scenes are set ahead of the run-in in England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France.
Most unpredictable team (average % of players correctly predicting the outcome of a specific team's games: Brighton (30.2%)
It was a rough week for Liverpool prior to this break as they suffered disappointments in both the Champions League and the League Cup, but the wider context is that Arne Slot's first season in charge is still set to be historic with the Reds cruising to a Premier League title that few expected them to win. While some of their early results therefore came as a slight shock to the community, the Reds have become one of the easiest teams to predict this season (67% of players correctly predict their matches compared to the league average of 47%) as they've lost just once.
That said, it's probably still Nottingham Forest (the only team to have beaten Liverpool in the league this season) that stand out most on the top six graphic below. Having only just managed to stay in the division last season, Nuno Espirito Santo has overseen a truly incredible campaign that may well result in Forest playing Champions League football next season. The Premier League is set to have 5 spots in next year's UCL and Forest are currently 7 points clear of 6th-placed Newcastle with a fairly manageable run-in in terms of fixture difficulty.
Newcastle's game in hand means they are a real threat to Chelsea and Manchester City in those top 5 places, but with just 5 points separating Chelsea and 10th-placed Bournemouth, the entire top half of the table is in the mix for Champions League football let alone the Europa League and Europa Conference League, so we can expect plenty more difficult picks between now and the end of the season.
At the other end of the Premier League, things are somewhat more predictable.
The 3 newly promoted sides look to be headed straight back down to the EFL Championship. Wolves' win at Southampton at the weekend means they are 9 points clear of Ipswich and Leicester, and the form of the teams inside the relegation zone would suggest that's a gap that isn't going to be bridged.
Most unpredictable team: Real Betis (31.6%)
LaLiga has been the home of what is probably the most exciting title race this season, with the Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona game that we saw in LaLiga's most recent fixture likely to be of huge significance. Having suffered an immensely painful Champions League exit at the hands of rivals Real Madrid, Atleti dusted themselves down and went 2-0 up in Sunday's pivotal LaLiga clash against Barca, only to end up losing 2-4.
As you can see below, Barca's win has put them in control of things, at least for now. The fact that Hansi Flick's team still have a game in hand vs. Osasuna too means Atleti really are now on the back foot in the title race, but it should be fascinating battle between Barcelona and Real Madrid and we still have a Clasico to come.
Athletic Club and Villarreal have been there or thereabouts all season, which means Real Betis are the most notable team on the above graphic as they're now up to 6th. Betis are the most unpredictable team in LaLiga based on Superbru data, because they went from being absolutely terrible in the first half of the season, to now being very, very good. Isco's return from injury was always likely to help Manuel Pellegrini's side and the 32-year old has indeed been excellent, but Antony's form since arriving from Manchester United on loan was less expected and the attacking quality of that duo means Betis are currently on a 5-match winning run.
The relegation battle in Spain is set to be far more dramatic than the Premier League's. Valladolid are basically down, but there's just 3 points between 19th-placed Las Palmas and 15th-placed Espanyol. Valencia (16th) have improved under Carlos Corberan and now look more likely to stay up than Alaves and Leganés, but things remain very much in the balance for the 5 teams involved and don't be surprised if there are still 3 or 4 teams involved in the fight in the final round of the campaign.
Most unpredictable team: Mainz 05 (37%)
After losing out to Bayer Leverkusen last year, Bayern Munich look well placed to gain revenge and reclaim their crown in Germany this season because in addition to eliminating Xabi Alonso's team from the Champions League, Bayern are 6 points clear in the Bundesliga. That's right, Harry Kane (21 goals in 24 league games this season) is on the verge of finally winning a trophy.
Given Leverkusen's quality and Kane's incredible misfortune trophy wise, don't rule out a late twist, but Leverkusen look good for 2nd place at the least. Behind them, things are really interesting in terms of the top 4, as two of last year's Champions League qualifiers - Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart - are well out of the picture as things stand in 11th and 10th respectively.
Mainz 05's position in 3rd is incredible and akin to Nottingham Forest' Premier League season in the sense that they too were battling relegation last season. Manager Bo Henriksen already deserves enormous credit, but if they can maintain their position it really will be an achievement. The highest Bundesliga position Mainz have ever previously managed was 5th under Thomas Tuchel in 2011.
Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig are of course teams with much more recent experience of European football and will fancy their chances of leapfrogging Mainz before May, though Leipzig have been painfully inconsistent all season and were beaten 1-2 at home by Mainz at the start of March.
Inconsistency is a trait plenty of Bundesliga teams can relate to, though both Freiburg (6th, 42 points) and Augsburg (9th, 38 points) are unbeaten since January so they're ones to watch and might be timing things well for a strong end to the season.
At the bottom, we might well see more of a battle between the current bottom three (Holstein Kiel, Heidenheim and VfL Bochum) for the relegation play-off spot than we do a fight for Bundesliga safety as 15th-placed St. Pauli are 5 points in front.
Most unpredictable team: Parma (41.2%)
Inter look fairly well placed to retain their Serie A crown this season as we approach the run-in, because whereas they've remained fairly consistent in the past couple of months, Antonio Conte's Napoli, who have led the way for much of this season, have struggled throughout February and March.
Napoli remain only 3 points behind so Conte certainly won't have given up hope of yet another league title in his first season with a club, but just 1 win in their last 7 league games is a concern ahead of upcoming fixtures vs. AC Milan and Bologna after this international break.
Bologna have been excellent in 2025 with just 1 defeat in this calendar year so far. That form means they are currently on track to retain their place in the Champions League following this season's maiden appearance, whereas Milan are well off the pace in 9th.
It will be worth keeping a close eye on Juventus in these coming weeks as they made the decision to sack manager Thiago Motta yesterday, replacing him with Igor Tudor. Tudor, who made more than 100 appearances for Juve as a player and has previously worked as an assistant manager in Turin, has more of a short-term feel as an appointment (in comparison to Motta who was supposed to be a long-term project) given his relatively brief spells with previous clubs as a manager, so it will be interesting to see if Juve can secure Champions League football ahead of Bologna, Lazio and a Roma side that has been flying up the table (now 7th) ever since appointing the legendary Claudio Ranieri.
Ranieri, 73, came out of retirement to manage his home town club and Roma are currently on a 13-match unbeaten run in Serie A, winning their last 6.
Cesc Fabregas's Como have received plenty of plaudits for their season so far with the team currently 13th on 29 points in their first Serie A season for over 20 years, meaning they're 7 points clear clear of the relegation battle which now looks hopeless for Monza, difficult for Venezia and fairly tricky for Empoli. 17th-placed Parma have had a reasonable start under new manager Cristian Chivu with just 1 defeat in 4 games, so it's perhaps Lecce (16th) who are most at risk to an improvement from Empoli given that they've lost their last 4 in a row.
Most unpredictable team: Auxerre (32.5%)
If we ignore PSG at the top who are absolutely dominating as usual (that's not a dig at Paris as I think they're a great team who are genuinely really fun to watch this season), things are very open in France and it should be an excellent run-in.
Marseille remain a strong team under Roberto De Zerbi but perhaps not quite as good or at least not as consistent as they threatened to be early in the season, AS Monaco and Nice look solid enough to maintain their current positions, and Lyon are a fun watch, mainly due to the excellent form of Rayan Cherki.
When you then also consider that Lille's sole focus will now be on the league after their Champions League exit and 7th-placed Strasbourg are in better form than anyone else in the league (besides PSG who are competing with different resources to everyone else) at the moment, we're set for a great battle for the European places.
Strasbourg are owned by the same people that own Chelsea and it's fair to say that they've made the most of that partnership. In fact, two of the players Strasbourg have on loan from Chelsea - goalkeeper Djorde Petrovic and midfielder Andrey Santos - are arguably better than players Chelsea have in those positions in their first team, while young forwards Emanuel Emegha and Dilane Bakwa have also stood out under manager Liam Rosenior.
At the wrong end of the table, Montpellier appear unlikely to be playing Ligue 1 football next season as they are now 5 points adrift at the bottom of the table having scored 1 goal since January, but expect a real fight between Saint-Etienne, Le Havre and Reims. ___________________________
Which league have you most enjoyed watching and/or predicting this season? Personally, though I'm doing best in LaLiga Predictor wise, I think the Premier League and Ligue 1 battles for Europe will make for the most entertainment during the run-in!
LaLiga is of course the place to go for a title race, as we're set for a classic between Barcelona and Real Madrid which controversially resumes on Thursday when Barca play their rearranged fixture vs. Osasuna.
To see the predictability stats of any team covered by Superbru, simply head to their profile on the Superbru Football app.
Here, I'll be running you through how things are looking in each of Europe's top 5 leagues that are covered on Superbru Football, while comparing them in terms of predictability based on the data available on the Superbru Football app.
| Download Superbru Football |
Though the title races look all but settled in 3 of the 5 leagues, competition for European places remains wide open across the continent and it's interesting to see plenty of dark horses in contention for Champions League football in 2025-26.
Here's how the scenes are set ahead of the run-in in England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France.
Premier League
Predictability on Superbru Football (average % of people correctly predicting the outcome of a game): 47% (8th most predictable of 13 active tournaments on Superbru Football)Most unpredictable team (average % of players correctly predicting the outcome of a specific team's games: Brighton (30.2%)
It was a rough week for Liverpool prior to this break as they suffered disappointments in both the Champions League and the League Cup, but the wider context is that Arne Slot's first season in charge is still set to be historic with the Reds cruising to a Premier League title that few expected them to win. While some of their early results therefore came as a slight shock to the community, the Reds have become one of the easiest teams to predict this season (67% of players correctly predict their matches compared to the league average of 47%) as they've lost just once.
That said, it's probably still Nottingham Forest (the only team to have beaten Liverpool in the league this season) that stand out most on the top six graphic below. Having only just managed to stay in the division last season, Nuno Espirito Santo has overseen a truly incredible campaign that may well result in Forest playing Champions League football next season. The Premier League is set to have 5 spots in next year's UCL and Forest are currently 7 points clear of 6th-placed Newcastle with a fairly manageable run-in in terms of fixture difficulty.
Newcastle's game in hand means they are a real threat to Chelsea and Manchester City in those top 5 places, but with just 5 points separating Chelsea and 10th-placed Bournemouth, the entire top half of the table is in the mix for Champions League football let alone the Europa League and Europa Conference League, so we can expect plenty more difficult picks between now and the end of the season.
At the other end of the Premier League, things are somewhat more predictable.
The 3 newly promoted sides look to be headed straight back down to the EFL Championship. Wolves' win at Southampton at the weekend means they are 9 points clear of Ipswich and Leicester, and the form of the teams inside the relegation zone would suggest that's a gap that isn't going to be bridged.
LaLiga
Predictability on Superbru Football: 46% (10th most predictable of 13 active tournaments)Most unpredictable team: Real Betis (31.6%)
LaLiga has been the home of what is probably the most exciting title race this season, with the Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona game that we saw in LaLiga's most recent fixture likely to be of huge significance. Having suffered an immensely painful Champions League exit at the hands of rivals Real Madrid, Atleti dusted themselves down and went 2-0 up in Sunday's pivotal LaLiga clash against Barca, only to end up losing 2-4.
As you can see below, Barca's win has put them in control of things, at least for now. The fact that Hansi Flick's team still have a game in hand vs. Osasuna too means Atleti really are now on the back foot in the title race, but it should be fascinating battle between Barcelona and Real Madrid and we still have a Clasico to come.
Athletic Club and Villarreal have been there or thereabouts all season, which means Real Betis are the most notable team on the above graphic as they're now up to 6th. Betis are the most unpredictable team in LaLiga based on Superbru data, because they went from being absolutely terrible in the first half of the season, to now being very, very good. Isco's return from injury was always likely to help Manuel Pellegrini's side and the 32-year old has indeed been excellent, but Antony's form since arriving from Manchester United on loan was less expected and the attacking quality of that duo means Betis are currently on a 5-match winning run.
The relegation battle in Spain is set to be far more dramatic than the Premier League's. Valladolid are basically down, but there's just 3 points between 19th-placed Las Palmas and 15th-placed Espanyol. Valencia (16th) have improved under Carlos Corberan and now look more likely to stay up than Alaves and Leganés, but things remain very much in the balance for the 5 teams involved and don't be surprised if there are still 3 or 4 teams involved in the fight in the final round of the campaign.
Bundesliga
Predictability on Superbru Football: 48% (5th most predictable of 13 active tournaments)Most unpredictable team: Mainz 05 (37%)
After losing out to Bayer Leverkusen last year, Bayern Munich look well placed to gain revenge and reclaim their crown in Germany this season because in addition to eliminating Xabi Alonso's team from the Champions League, Bayern are 6 points clear in the Bundesliga. That's right, Harry Kane (21 goals in 24 league games this season) is on the verge of finally winning a trophy.
Given Leverkusen's quality and Kane's incredible misfortune trophy wise, don't rule out a late twist, but Leverkusen look good for 2nd place at the least. Behind them, things are really interesting in terms of the top 4, as two of last year's Champions League qualifiers - Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart - are well out of the picture as things stand in 11th and 10th respectively.
Mainz 05's position in 3rd is incredible and akin to Nottingham Forest' Premier League season in the sense that they too were battling relegation last season. Manager Bo Henriksen already deserves enormous credit, but if they can maintain their position it really will be an achievement. The highest Bundesliga position Mainz have ever previously managed was 5th under Thomas Tuchel in 2011.
Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig are of course teams with much more recent experience of European football and will fancy their chances of leapfrogging Mainz before May, though Leipzig have been painfully inconsistent all season and were beaten 1-2 at home by Mainz at the start of March.
Inconsistency is a trait plenty of Bundesliga teams can relate to, though both Freiburg (6th, 42 points) and Augsburg (9th, 38 points) are unbeaten since January so they're ones to watch and might be timing things well for a strong end to the season.
At the bottom, we might well see more of a battle between the current bottom three (Holstein Kiel, Heidenheim and VfL Bochum) for the relegation play-off spot than we do a fight for Bundesliga safety as 15th-placed St. Pauli are 5 points in front.
Serie A
Predictability on Superbru Football: 50% (3rd most predictable of 13 active tournaments)Most unpredictable team: Parma (41.2%)
Inter look fairly well placed to retain their Serie A crown this season as we approach the run-in, because whereas they've remained fairly consistent in the past couple of months, Antonio Conte's Napoli, who have led the way for much of this season, have struggled throughout February and March.
Napoli remain only 3 points behind so Conte certainly won't have given up hope of yet another league title in his first season with a club, but just 1 win in their last 7 league games is a concern ahead of upcoming fixtures vs. AC Milan and Bologna after this international break.
Bologna have been excellent in 2025 with just 1 defeat in this calendar year so far. That form means they are currently on track to retain their place in the Champions League following this season's maiden appearance, whereas Milan are well off the pace in 9th.
It will be worth keeping a close eye on Juventus in these coming weeks as they made the decision to sack manager Thiago Motta yesterday, replacing him with Igor Tudor. Tudor, who made more than 100 appearances for Juve as a player and has previously worked as an assistant manager in Turin, has more of a short-term feel as an appointment (in comparison to Motta who was supposed to be a long-term project) given his relatively brief spells with previous clubs as a manager, so it will be interesting to see if Juve can secure Champions League football ahead of Bologna, Lazio and a Roma side that has been flying up the table (now 7th) ever since appointing the legendary Claudio Ranieri.
Ranieri, 73, came out of retirement to manage his home town club and Roma are currently on a 13-match unbeaten run in Serie A, winning their last 6.
Cesc Fabregas's Como have received plenty of plaudits for their season so far with the team currently 13th on 29 points in their first Serie A season for over 20 years, meaning they're 7 points clear clear of the relegation battle which now looks hopeless for Monza, difficult for Venezia and fairly tricky for Empoli. 17th-placed Parma have had a reasonable start under new manager Cristian Chivu with just 1 defeat in 4 games, so it's perhaps Lecce (16th) who are most at risk to an improvement from Empoli given that they've lost their last 4 in a row.
Ligue 1
Predictability on Superbru Football: 49% (4th most predictable of 13 active tournaments)Most unpredictable team: Auxerre (32.5%)
If we ignore PSG at the top who are absolutely dominating as usual (that's not a dig at Paris as I think they're a great team who are genuinely really fun to watch this season), things are very open in France and it should be an excellent run-in.
Marseille remain a strong team under Roberto De Zerbi but perhaps not quite as good or at least not as consistent as they threatened to be early in the season, AS Monaco and Nice look solid enough to maintain their current positions, and Lyon are a fun watch, mainly due to the excellent form of Rayan Cherki.
When you then also consider that Lille's sole focus will now be on the league after their Champions League exit and 7th-placed Strasbourg are in better form than anyone else in the league (besides PSG who are competing with different resources to everyone else) at the moment, we're set for a great battle for the European places.
Strasbourg are owned by the same people that own Chelsea and it's fair to say that they've made the most of that partnership. In fact, two of the players Strasbourg have on loan from Chelsea - goalkeeper Djorde Petrovic and midfielder Andrey Santos - are arguably better than players Chelsea have in those positions in their first team, while young forwards Emanuel Emegha and Dilane Bakwa have also stood out under manager Liam Rosenior.
At the wrong end of the table, Montpellier appear unlikely to be playing Ligue 1 football next season as they are now 5 points adrift at the bottom of the table having scored 1 goal since January, but expect a real fight between Saint-Etienne, Le Havre and Reims. ___________________________
Which league have you most enjoyed watching and/or predicting this season? Personally, though I'm doing best in LaLiga Predictor wise, I think the Premier League and Ligue 1 battles for Europe will make for the most entertainment during the run-in!
LaLiga is of course the place to go for a title race, as we're set for a classic between Barcelona and Real Madrid which controversially resumes on Thursday when Barca play their rearranged fixture vs. Osasuna.
To see the predictability stats of any team covered by Superbru, simply head to their profile on the Superbru Football app.
| Download Superbru Football |
BC
101,215 caps
Bundesliga so far my best compared to all the others 👍
24 Mar 15:30
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Cooper
2,328 caps
Thanks Jack
29 Mar 11:29
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