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Super Rugby Pacific: Round 11 Predictions

I managed 4 out of 5 picks last weekend, below the community average, by picking the Highlanders to beat the Brumbies. Losing the GSP was made slightly more bearable because I talked Jack out of picking the Brumbies to win!

There are few tricky picks to contend with this weekend. Here are my Super Rugby predictions for Round 11.

Reds v Chiefs

This could go either way, but based on last week’s results, the smart money is on the Chiefs even though the Reds beat them last year. Chiefs by 7

Force v Blues

This looks like an easy one, with the Force struggling against their fellow Aussies and they’ll likely be thrashed by the Kiwis. Blues by 28

Fijian Drua v Highlanders

It will be interesting to see how playing in Suva affects the Fijian Drua this weekend, but it would take a brave man to pick a home win here. Highlanders by 9

Waratahs v Crusaders

This looks fairly straightforward, but it’s worth checking team sheets and Superbru Insights before locking in your margin pick. Crusaders by 16

Rebels v Moana Pasifika

The Rebels are missing their key man, and my instinct says that Moana can win this, given they have been playing at a higher level in New Zealand. Moana Pasifika by 2

Brumbies v Hurricanes

This is the trickiest pick of the weekend in the final fixture. The Brumbies beat the Highlanders last weekend, and now have the added advantage of playing in Canberra rather than Melbourne, but my instinct is still telling me to pick the New Zealanders. Hurricanes by 6

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I was so happy last weekend to see the limit of 4 transfers in the Fantasy comp was increased to 6. Now it's back to 4, I don't know why. I know the Force Moa game was postponed at short notice which could be the reason. I still fail to see who looses anything by increasing the transfers. It's the same for everybody, yes sure, it's also true if you increase the transfers. This week the Crusaders decided to rest Blackadder, Mo'unga, Ennor and Bridge, just to name one team. Most of the fantasy players will have at least 2 of those player in their team[if not all four]. Those who shout "plan ahead", please tell me how do you plan ahead for the rotation of players? If the comp allows me to have max 4 Crusaders in my team, I would like to rotate them as well! I came to the conclusion that those who set the limit of 4, doesn't play the fantasy game
28 Apr 09:57
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Hey Hennie. I only need 1 transfer to put out a full starting XV. In fact, I rarely need all the available transfers in any of the rugby fantasies. If the allowed transfers are increased, I would be disadvantaged. There are occasions where I’m unable to put out a full XV, but I console myself with the likelihood that others are similarly affected. In the URC fantasy, there are far too many rounds where transfers are unlimited. This gives brus that haven’t planned, back on an equal footing with those who planned well. Hardly fair. 28 Apr 10:14
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Totally agree with Hennie.
Its time Superbru became more consistent in their transfer allocations for these fabulous fantasy tournaments. So much more interesting and skilfil than the win margin prediction games but thats another story. Dreaded Red has a good point too that its same for all brus. Nevertheless i hope superbru increase transfers to 6 for future tournaments. And as for planning ahead thats impossible with the constant rotation of players and a fair amount of luck is needed at times to field a full XV 28 Apr 11:12
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@Hennie, the transfer limit was increased for round 10 due to the postponement of the Force vs Moana Pasifika following our variable transfer limit rules which have been applicable since the start of the global pandemic. No one can plan for a scheduled match not taking place. So we make allowance within the game for transfers to be increased at short notice for that reason to make such an unforseen situation more attainable.

Player rotation is a totally different matter. That happens and is part of the challenge of any fantasy game. In fact, it's exactly the purpose of having transfers in the first place - so that you can make small adjustments to your squad for the matches which are scheduled. 28 Apr 13:15
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If you find that you're in the unlucky position to not have enough transfers, try making shrewd selections for the best sacrifice - a typically low scoring position perhaps - and plan the rest of your transfers to accommodate for next week's fixtures instead so that you can bounce back. 28 Apr 13:28
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Let's take last week's situation as an example. I had 3 Force players in my squad (and yes @Hennie, we here at Superbru do play the fantasy games as well). Despite the fair bit of player rotation across many of the other teams I needed exactly 6 transfers to fill a lineup. Rather than trading out all of my non-playing Force guys I kept 2 of them in the squad, assuming they'd definitely play this weekend after having a bye - as they are. That's put me in a comfortable position again for this weekend, in which I don't need any transfers to be able to field a full lineup, despite all the player rotation. So I've got the luxury of tweaking my squad to optimise for in form players now rather than being forced (no pun intended) to make reactive transfers.

Using strategies like that when you're in a pinch for transfers might be helpful. 28 Apr 13:29
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To touch on DreadedRed's concern about unlimited transfers in the URC Fantasy game, yes, to an extent that does give some guys an opportunity to catch up if they can make some clever transfers during that time. BUT, the key thing to bare in mind is that the format of the tournament is incredibly awkward at times with vastly different teams playing, especially during the North or South only phases or with many postponed and rescheduled matches.

Ideally we'd love to see the same teams playing every single week. That way it's easy to set one standardised transfer limit threshold and stick with it throughout the tournament. The Super Rugby is a lot more consistent in that front (with some small variations here and there). There's just no consistency in the URC format and the pandemic hasn't made it any easier. If we didn't have unlimited transfers at times, then we'd be inundated with complaints from users unable to field a full lineup. It just wouldn't be fun to play. 28 Apr 13:36
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And that leads to a reply to @The Professor's concern about transfer consistency. Yes, ideally we'd love to have total consistency around the number of transfers - that would absolutely make it easy to understand from a user's perspective. However, every tournament isn't the same and we tailor the amount of transfers uniquely to every tournament's format and needs.

From personal experience in the Super Rugby game, I think the 4 transfers limit is spot on. It's been more than ample for me to tweak my lineup every week. The only time I've been short was when I had to make rushed late transfers at the beginning of April and I stupidly forgot to plan properly for the next week. I only have myself to blame for that mistake. If I had taken a step back and reassessed my chosen transfers at the time I would've been fine for the next week. 28 Apr 13:51
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With all of that said, rest assured that we do take note of these comments and concerns about transfer limits and it doesn't fall on deaf ears.

A bit of insight: Our fantasy game is designed with an open market (i.e. no artificial financial system to limit open player movement), so it's important to have team and transfer limits that make the game challenging but attainable to play. 4 Transfers in the SRF achieves exactly that. 6 Transfers per round would be very lenient and too easy, making the need for strategic planning inconsequential.

As this is a new tournament (in the current "Pacific"guise) we'll run a post-tournament analysis to assess various key indicators. If the numbers suggest more transfers are indeed needed then we'll improve that for next season. But right now, the 4 transfer limit for a standard round is set for the season. And like DreadedRed has said, it's the same for everyone. So it's not the size of the limits that matters, it's how you use it... 28 Apr 14:07
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Thanks Dawid, for your detailed responses above. Very informative, with good advice that all Fantasy players will benefit from. There will always be some debate, which is healthy. Hennie and The Professor both raise salient points, that are with merit. I do still feel that perhaps the "Unlimited Transfer" rounds in the URC should be altered next season to a maximum of 15; but simultaneously I understand and agree with the sound logic that you have put forward. There is no perfect system, but the fact that Superbru continuously monitor the stats and our feedback, and where warranted tweaks accordingly, is all that we can ask for. Superbru Rugby Fantasies are tremendous fun, and mind-boggling. Certainly keeps the dementia wolf from the door! 28 Apr 15:00
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Big Mouth here. What IS the harm in a few extra transfers really? In fact being spoilt for choice has its own pitfalls. Making extra changes in the unlimited URC round actually cost me a few points, I dropped Zas for example.

In terms of planning ahead, I tried that. It got me nowhere. I thought to bring in Uelese the rotated Rebel Hooker, rested for two games after 13 & 15 pointers, so I gambled that he was due to start - er...no. Useless not Uelese! Then I kept Nanai-Seturo assuming he'd be back this round, NO! His replacement Telea is only on the bench and Bridge is rested. So only 1 of my 4 outside backs starts, Reece, that's 2 (half) of my transfers used up already.

So I've been a good little Bru and planned ahead and this is my reward. Increasing transfers a little takes the luck out of it I believe. Rather than hoping for the best from carried over cobbled together 2nd choicers I'd rather we all get to see how our BEST XV would fare. A truer picking reflection. 28 Apr 17:56
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Thanks for your fulsome response
Your points are all totally relevant and are taken into account each week in the fantasy games
i hoping in reviewing this comp transfers msy be upped to 6 for next season
I just think it defeats the purpose of any fantasy game when one is unable to field a full team due to transfer restrictions as much of it is luck rather than skill if u can field a full team with the rotation policies
What i have been trying to get across to u is this may have worked 5 years but now woth larger squads and player fatigue there is far more rotation these days in super rugby and 4 transfers is outdated. Having said that the 6 nations works with 4 transfers cos theu are test matches and the best teams are fielded in all games. Hope u see my point.
29 Apr 04:16
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Thanks David, I take notice. I also agree with The Professor's summary. I love the fantasy game and would like to have some backup on the bench. It's happened on a couple occasions this season that there's "last minute" changes to a team and there's no backup on the bench. 29 Apr 06:38
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Picking Rebels to beat MP by 1
28 Apr 11:19
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Lol. I'm going the other way. Like Hutch I don't like their chances without Toomua.
MP by 21 Aumua to star! 28 Apr 13:54
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Also going with the Rebels (by 6). I just feel that both of the new teams' cohesion has a way to go. 28 Apr 15:02
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It is NOT 7 aside!. More transfers and no team limits. 28 Apr 18:58
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I am always amazed if I do well in any given round when team line ups are only available so close to actual kick off times. Key players are always likely to rotate and effect choices. I think that having 6 transfers for each round would balance things out given that some teams are new to this format. 28 Apr 20:10
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Rebels by 3. I've seriously got no problem with 4 transfers makes it more challenging and like I said before we all in the same boat and if you can't field a full 15 then drop a prop or a lock for minimum losses. Really wished I was a prop short last week with Bell giving me an awesome minus 7 29 Apr 04:47
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Hey James! Yeah, Bell nailed most of us last week. Still picked him this week, although he has tough opponents. 29 Apr 07:04
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Why are Super Rugby fantasy points never updated like URC , they take initial scores as final scores ..its a shame really cause we all love fantasy and would like our teams/players to be rewarded for their good work rather than handicapped
1 May 08:12
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For example: Im sitting on 158.5 URC points all players played , tomorrow morning I will either have less or more depending on how players did e.g added missed tackles/more metres carried..etc ...Super Rugby I am on 150 points with Valetini still to be added , once Valetini's points are added later during the day my score that I have will end up as my final score ?

Please admin I'd like to understand

Thank you
1 May 08:25
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Good pick up Andrew
Ive noticed that too.
Also some weeks the totals on brus points are updated during the round and other weeks not. Id prefer them to just to be updated when final points are confirmed which is usually Mondau evening NZ time 2 May 05:04
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How is it that I pick 4/6 in the Super Rugby Pacific and my total has gone backwards. I think your machine is faulty.
2 May 02:48
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Thanks Professor

And true to form Valetini 16 points were added to my 150 and my final score was 160 ??

2 May 10:53
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2 May 10:53