Premier League Predictions: Superbru Algorithm Predicts Round 1

Hutch | Commercial Director

Tue 6 Aug 2019

Our Premium Insights service on Superbru is designed to bring together information and data that you can find elsewhere which might be useful when you are making your Premier League predictions.

Data points like the weather, the referee, previous results between the teams, bookies odds and so on - all worth factoring into any prediction somehow or other.

We have also created a formula that take various data into account to produce a score prediction for each fixture. This comes with the usual disclaimers that it is not a recommendation for your own pick and we take no responsibility if you follow these tips and they are wrong. However, last season the algorithm performed rather well, with our Superbru Insights user on Superbru finishing in the top 2% on the Global Leaderboard.

We have made some further refinements ahead of the new season, and we've cranked the computer handle for Round 1, and here are the outcome probabilities produced:

The algorithm also translates these probabilities into Superbru picks as follows:

Liverpool 3-0 Norwich
West Ham 0-2 Man. City
Bournemouth 2-0 Sheffield United
Burnley 1-1 Southampton
Crystal Palace 0-1 Everton
Watford 2-0 Brighton
Tottenham 2-0 Aston Villa
Leicester City 2-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Newcastle 0-2 Arsenal
Man. United 2-1 Chelsea

If you would like to find out more about our Superbru Insights service, visit the Superbru Premium page where you'll find details of how to join.

Swampy

90,028 caps

Hi Hutch. fascinated by your algorithm. Haven’t gone through the stats in detail but my perception from last year is it under forecasts the number of draws. The results from the past 4 seasons:

2018/19 19% Draw
2017/18 26% Draw
2016/17 22% Draw
2015/16 28% Draw

I think your algorithm gives a Draw % of somewhere closer to 10%? Interested to know your thoughts!

7 Aug 15:26

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Hutch

83,775 caps

Yes, it's rare that the algorithm predicts a draw, even though a draw is not particularly rare in real life. Draws are hard to predict though, and similar to the bookies, it's never the outcome with the highest probability.

Burnley v Southampton must be almost guaranteed to be a draw! 7 Aug 15:51

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Jersey-puller

32,772 caps

Has it factored in VAR & LAW CHANGES ? I see these as helping smaller teams who were pretty hard done by in the past. I also think it will help away teams hurt by 'Home Town Decisions' aka 'Old Trafford Rules' in the past, for example only 3 penalties awarded against Man U at home one season! Goalies must keep one foot on the line when a pen is struck ( impacted the Women's World Cup a lot), stricter deliberate hand ball rules and other more minor changes about Goal KIcks and Asst Refs calls and playing on THEN checking VAR after. I remember the Back Pass rule in 92 leading to some howlers! So more upsets on the horizon hopefully.

7 Aug 20:13

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sjohndavies

3,685 caps

early days and harder to predict this early in the season. Usually some surprises

8 Aug 22:29

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TINO1990

18,951 caps

Always suprises in premier league but i think tonights game might be the first of those many suprises.

9 Aug 04:50

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masterpman

4,946 caps

Very interesting and helpful...I picked few rights and I'm glad I've managed to beat u in some of them lol,I got Liverpool,Man City,draw for Bournemouth & Sheffield U, Everton & Palace, Watford, Tottenham only Burnley let me down...now waiting for tomorrow's fixtures...the spirit is high here lol

10 Aug 20:53

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musoke henry jf

2,252 caps

I want to predict

28 Oct 16:04

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