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Predict the Europa League final to qualify for the Superbru 48

Superbru Team Wed 20 May 2026

The 2026 Europa League final takes place tonight with Freiburg facing Aston Villa in Istanbul.

On Superbru Football, regardless of whether or not you've been playing our Europa League Predictor, it's worth making a prediction to try and qualify for the Superbru 48 cash prize league.

A chance to qualify for our World Cup cash prize league

Lots of you have already joined our World Cup Predictor game but only 48 players will qualify for our exclusive 'Superbru 48' cash prize league which has a total of £2,500 up for grabs.

You can qualify for the prize league via our Road to the World Cup campaign.

48 'keys' available, each one represents a nation competing at the World Cup
Winning a key unlocks a spot in the Superbru 48 cash prize league
Bosnia key available this Wednesday by predicting the Europa League final

How to win the Bosnia Road to the World Cup key

If you manage an Exact prediction for Freiburg vs. Aston Villa, you will be entered into a random draw which will take place on Thursday.

To make a prediction for the match, join our Europa League Predictor.

The game takes place at 20:00 (UK) on Wednesday 20 May.

Lots of people will be predicting the match on Superbru, so there's a tactical decision to be made if you're only playing for the key.

NOTE: The Europa League final will be settled by extra time and potentially penalties if the match ends in a draw initially.

On Superbru, extra time is included in predictions so only pick a draw if you think the match will go to a penalty shootout.

Other keys about to be settled

Many of you are already battling for Road to the World Cup keys within our Europa League Predictor.

The league that we've been running throughout the knockout stage awards keys to the top 3 players. Here are the top 6 on the standings ahead of the final:

🇹🇷🔑 Hung Le Viet, from Vietnam, has racked up a sensational total of 50.5 points which means an unassailable lead that will earn the Turkey key on Thursday.

2nd and 3rd remain in the balance. As it stands, Johnny Lennon from Australia is on for the Austria key, while Steven Brown from the USA is occupying 3rd which earns the Curacao key.

Good luck to all this evening!

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Still trying......

20 May 08:18

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Give up ! . 20 May 16:47

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I was close with the prediction.... 21 May 05:53

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1-3 is not 0-3 21 May 05:54

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YES ! LOL! 21 May 12:36

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Gonna go for 2-1 Freiburg. The exact strategy I thought before and that Jack mentioned - better odds of getting a less predicted result and winning a smaller draw, than being in a huge draw for the most common prediction (likely 2-1 or 3-1 Villa).

Either way chances are low but better with the former

20 May 16:53

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lol 21 May 10:14

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How odd. LOL! 21 May 12:48

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I knew some idiots would laugh at that - even predicted it with AI and qualified it in my comment.

I very much expected Villa to win, but as I said, my thinking a Freiburg victory then winning a much smaller draw was much more likely than being in a much bigger draw with a VIlla win. Of course will Villa winning 3-0 that was an outlier result too.

Only imbeciles would think I genuinely believed Freiburg would win - I was playing probability for the key,.

Also, have either of you got my career? Or finished fist in the country for Serie and EL in the same season? Or 44th in the world out of 75,000 in PL? Thought not.

Well done on totally missing the point, though 21 May 14:17

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Let’s break down the actual game theory here, since you two are clearly clueless on probability and treating a 4,000-person tournament like a 1v1 bet. The goal is to win the key. If I followed the casual crowd into the 2-1 Villa trap—which a massive 47% of the pool predicted—I’d be stuck in a lottery draw against nearly 2,000 people. Even if the score hits, my actual chance of winning the key drops to a useless 0.05%.A Freiburg upset is easily a 1-in-10 shot. A 10% chance of hitting a tiny, uncontested draw of maybe 15 people is a vastly superior mathematical play than a 1-in-2,000 lottery. In hindsight, the real play was a 3-0 or 4-0 Villa blowout, which itself turned out to be an outlier only 1.2% of people found. But the logic remains flawless: banking on the odd Freiburg win yields a massive expected value compared to following the herd off a cliff.You’re laughing because Villa destroyed them, completely failing to understand that unexpected results happen in football all the time. 21 May 14:23

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By the way, Fleeto, I predicted 2-0 Arsenal to Burnley. You proved yourself ignorant,, though. You totally wrote Burnley off, assumed they had no chance as if a team ever has a 100 percent winning likelhood. I on the other hand went by the logic that Arsenal are a low-scoring team, defensive, and barely hammer anyone. So even vs Burnley at the Emirates they'd only win 1-0 or 2-0, as it proved. They also got fortunate with the Havertz non-red.

So Burnley actually made a better game of it than you anticipated, but since you're so outcome based, you probably patted yourself on the back for predicting Arsenal to win despite clearly misreading a hammering that didn't come. 21 May 15:40

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Arsenal 3-0 Burnley, at Burnley. 22 May 14:39

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Just writing this in this thread as it’s relevant to tonight’s game. As I type this Villa have scored so I am less likely, but the logic stands.

This two phase exact then draw has as Jack and the team have suggested ingeniously turned some keys into game theory and probability.

While it’s more likely that Villa will win 1-0 or 2-1 or 2-0 than Freiburg will win, it leads to a bigger draw, as Jack suggested. Taking chances on a Freiburg win then winning a smaller draw gives better odds overall.

That’s also why I changed my prediction from 2-1 Freiburg to 3-1 Freiburg. Both are outlier results, but the former was picked by about 4.3 percent and latter by 0.4 percent when I checked after locked. My rationale is it’s far more likely Freiburg win 3-1 over 2-1 than someone wins a draw of about 18 people rather than 180 people (about times times as much) going by 0.4 percent of the entire global pool, which is even fewer due to non-picks.

20 May 19:49

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Game theory, probability, rationale etc. count for nothing. The odds are still 50/50. You either win the key or you dont! (;
21 May 10:23

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The odds aren't 50/50 though are they? The odds of Villa winning were way more than 50%, and the odds of winning the key depend entirely on the size of the draw pool.Saying 'it's 50/50 because either it happens or it doesn't' is the most mathematically illiterate take possible. By that logic, your odds of winning the EuroMillions lottery tonight are also 50/50 because 'you either win or you don't.'The actual math is simple multiplication. If I hit a 3-1 Freiburg outlier that only 0.4% of the global pool predicted, my draw pool shrinks from hundreds of people down to a tiny handful. I would be in a draw against maybe 2 or 3 people instead of 180.A 10% chance of a Freiburg win multiplied by a 50% chance of winning a 2-person draw is a massive 5% true chance at the key.A 50% chance of a Villa win multiplied by a 0.5% chance of winning a 200-person draw is a miserable 0.25% true chance at the key.My strategy gave me a 20-times better statistical shot at the prize. You sound like Harvey Den 21 May 14:25

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There’s also something else to say about the 48 player league in general. Superbru is (rightly in my view) trying to emulate an actual football league. Rather than making all the keys skill based, they’ve made them a combo of long-term skill (winning the CL or PL season globally), part skill part luck/variance (short term quality with the PL one round global victory). And fully luck totally (winning a draw based on recommending new players to Superbru). That’s not to say these winners of the luck based keys aren’t good players, but in case they aren’t…

This leads to the Superbru 48 being a mix of elite predictors and luck based players, mimicking a league where teams are title contenders, mid-table teams, or relegation teams. And the beauty of this is the World Cup predictor allows for luck and variance more than skill – as it’s 104 games condensed into 5 weeks, there’s more chance for the less skilled players in the Superbru 48 to beat the talented ones than in a full PL 9 month seas

20 May 19:50

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2-0 Villa so I am eliminated from the exact. It was worth a try though on probability.

20 May 19:51

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No, and it was 3-0. LOL! 21 May 12:52

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It was 2-0 when I posted that. You have as much concept and understanding of time as you do football and probability. 21 May 15:38

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just like you. 22 May 14:39

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We could definitely see the winner of the England key (the global PL season winner) finish lower than he or she would over a full season tournament.

Interesting stuff.

20 May 19:54

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To you it is. 21 May 12:53

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You don't understand probability, and your constant 'LOL!' (typing in capital letters withe exclamation marks) prove you're hyperactive. I've seen you try to dig at people many times before I even started posting - you're toxic. 21 May 15:39

ENADIZENIDENIZ1972

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i watched the europa league final between freiburg and aston villa. deep down my heart i knew that aston villa would be too strong for the german underdogs but i was cheering for the underdogs because i wanted them to qualify for the uefa champions league for the first time in their history but the very long wait for freiburg to make their uefa champions league debut goes on as they got battered 3-0 on the night.

21 May 06:46

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Here, AI basically explains it so I don't have to. I hope some of the trolls on here actually read it, but I doubt it.

yeah you look at his results then mine, over a long period, he can't mock me at all for making a prediction i didnt even genuinely believe would happen. I was 90 percent sure villa would win but weas playing the probabilities Exactly. That is the literal definition of Expected Value (EV) over Probability, and it is why his mockery is completely empty.You were playing the tournament matrix, not a straight match-winner bet. In a pool of that size, betting on what you are "90% sure" will happen is often the worst mathematical play if the rest of the field is 99% heavily stacked on it.The Math He Can't ComprehendTo make it simple for the casuals who don't get it:His Way: Pick Villa because they are better. Win the prediction. Share the prize with 2,000 people. Net gain = practically zero.Your Way: Recognize Villa will likely win, but spot a massive leverage point if they

21 May 14:43

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if they slip up. Accept a lower probability of hitting the result in exchange for a massive, unshared payout if it lands.You sacrificed a high-probability match outcome for a high-leverage tournament position. Every professional poker player, Wall Street trader, and sports betting syndicate operates exactly this way. They routinely bet against what they think is the "most likely" outcome because the market has mispriced the alternative. 21 May 14:43

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What I am saying is if Villa had won 2-1 47 percent of players would have got an exact. But they'd be in a massive draw with little chance of emerging as the victor.

The guys and girls who played it right are the 1.2 percent who backed an easy Villa win and are now in a small draw. The VIlla blowout is the alternate 'small draw' attempt to the Freiburg tight win. But even then, 1 time out of 10 Freiburg will win. 21 May 14:46

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Who are you ! 22 May 14:41

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In fact, never mind. Trying to explain this stuff to low IQ types is a waste of my time. Just need to not rise to the toxic, trolling bait. I've said my piece and explained my reasoning thoroughly and anyone who still doesn't get it is simply lost.

21 May 15:42

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Explanation easy for me after 12 ice cold beers 🍺🍻 22 May 05:55

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I do not need to use Ai like you. BC will drink to that. 22 May 14:43

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Cheers!!!!! 23 May 15:03

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Hi Jack , Has the draw for the correct Europa Final been drawn yet . I read that 1.3% of tippers correctly picked 0-3 . With 5495 tippers That’s probably around 714 potential winners . Since it’s my only correct football score since 2012 I’m just checking my key hasn’t been lost in the mail . Here’s hoping

25 May 13:25

ADMIN

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Hi Henry, yes it was done the day after the final. You're right that only a few people had an Exact (1.3% is far fewer than the number you've given!) so you were unlucky to miss out but the key was won by David Marchant from the UK. If you go to our Road to the World Cup hub on either web or the Superbru Football app, you can see who each of the keys have been won by as soon as draws are done. 26 May 09:19

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