Champions League Group Stage: Final Round Permutations
The final group stage round of the Champions League takes place this week and with 12 teams already through to the knockouts, this round will decide who the final 4 teams to reach the Last 16 will be.
Since it's usually preferable to finish top of your group in order to face a group stage runner-up in the Round of 16, there's still plenty to play for in many of this week's fixtures. However, when making your picks, it's important to be aware of the teams who are either already out or already confirmed as group winners, as the lack of significance in their final matches means 'upsets' are often possible.
To help you with your Round 6 predictions, here's the situation in each group.
- Napoli and Liverpool are already through.
- Ajax will almost certainly finish 3rd.
- Rangers are all but out of Europe.
- Napoli will win the group unless they lose by 4 goals or more v Liverpool.
- Rangers would have to beat Ajax by 5 or more to snatch 3rd.
Advice for your picks: Realistically, all 4 teams will know the table is unlikely to change from how it currently looks meaning we could see rotation and slightly less intensity in both matches. That makes predictions hard, but Ajax are much stronger than Rangers. In a nothing game, you'd expect Liverpool to win at home against Napoli but the Reds' current domestic form is terrible and Napoli will be eager to maintain their incredible unbeaten run across all competitions this season.
- Brugge and Porto are through to the Last 16.
- Porto must better Brugge's result in Round 6 to move ahead of them and win the group.
- Atletico and Leverkusen are out but remain in a battle for 3rd.
- Leverkusen must better Atleti's result in Round 6 to move ahead of them and take 3rd.
Advice for your picks: Based on last week, Brugge's level has dropped quite considerably now that they're through so Leverkusen will fancy their chances! It's been a rough campaign for Atleti and Porto is a tough place to go, particularly since the hosts will fancy trying to steal top spot.
- Bayern are through as group winners.
- Inter are through as runners-up.
- Barca will finish 3rd and play Europa League.
- Viktoria Plzen are out.
Advice for your picks: Nothing to see here, folks. Everything is done and dusted meaning Bayern should win at home against Inter and Barca should brush Plzen aside with the pressure off.
- Drama. All teams can still go through!
- Spurs sit top so will win the group if they win in Marseille and will be through so long as they avoid defeat.
- Sporting will go through if they avoid defeat against Frankfurt and could win the group if Spurs fail to win.
- That means Frankfurt and Marseille are both in need of a win to secure their respective places in the knockouts.
Advice for your picks: Everything is still up for grabs so pick as you usually would. Both matches are expected to be even but remember Spurs and Sporting are the teams that need to avoid defeat rather than winning so if the matches are level late on, those two sides are likely to be the teams looking to settle for a point.
- Chelsea are through as group winners.
- Milan will join them as runners-up as long as they avoid defeat at home to Salzburg who will go through instead with a win.
- Dinamo are out of the Champions League but could snatch 3rd if they win and Salzburg lose.
Advice for your picks: There'll be some nerves for Milan, particularly after a defeat in Serie A at the weekend, but they should get the job done at San Siro. Even with nothing to play for, Chelsea are a lot stronger than Zagreb (despite the result in the reverse fixture!) and there are several players who will want a chance to prove themselves worthy of a place in Graham Potter's starting XI.
- Real Madrid are through and will win the group if they defeat Celtic.
- Leipzig will be through if they avoid defeat. They could top the group if they win and Madrid don't.
- Shakhtar will qualify ahead of Leipzig if they beat the Bundesliga side in Round 6.
- Celtic are out and will finish 4th.
Advice for your picks: Madrid should be comfortable at home given their quality and the context so it's all about what is essentially a knockout match between Shakhtar and Leipzig! The Bundesliga side are in far better form than they were at the start of this competition, but after winning in Leipzig, could we see Shakhtar pull off a double that sees them through? It's definitely possible...
- Manchester City are through as group winners.
- Dortmund are through as runners-up.
- Sevilla will finish 3rd and play Europa League.
- Copenhagen are out and will finish 4th.
Advice for your picks: Nothing to play for here. City should still beat Sevilla at home but won't risk Haaland who is recovering from injury. Copenhagen might see this as a chance to get a win on the board since BVB have no motivation, but both of the Danish side's home games so far have finished goalless.
- PSG and Benfica are both through.
- PSG are only top on goal difference since both meetings with Benfica finished 1-1.
- Juventus and Maccabi Haifa are both out..
- Juventus are currently only 3rd on goal difference.
- The group winners and 3rd place will therefore be decided in this round.
Advice for your picks: Though no away games are easy in the Champions League, Benfica have the more favourable final fixture on paper and are in excellent form this season. That said, PSG will also fancy their chances despite the absence of Neymar as Juventus have been dreadful in this campaign. The most likely outcome here is two away wins which would almost certainly see the table remain as it currently is.
Since it's usually preferable to finish top of your group in order to face a group stage runner-up in the Round of 16, there's still plenty to play for in many of this week's fixtures. However, when making your picks, it's important to be aware of the teams who are either already out or already confirmed as group winners, as the lack of significance in their final matches means 'upsets' are often possible.
To help you with your Round 6 predictions, here's the situation in each group.
Group A
The situation:- Napoli and Liverpool are already through.
- Ajax will almost certainly finish 3rd.
- Rangers are all but out of Europe.
- Napoli will win the group unless they lose by 4 goals or more v Liverpool.
- Rangers would have to beat Ajax by 5 or more to snatch 3rd.
Advice for your picks: Realistically, all 4 teams will know the table is unlikely to change from how it currently looks meaning we could see rotation and slightly less intensity in both matches. That makes predictions hard, but Ajax are much stronger than Rangers. In a nothing game, you'd expect Liverpool to win at home against Napoli but the Reds' current domestic form is terrible and Napoli will be eager to maintain their incredible unbeaten run across all competitions this season.
Group B
The situation:- Brugge and Porto are through to the Last 16.
- Porto must better Brugge's result in Round 6 to move ahead of them and win the group.
- Atletico and Leverkusen are out but remain in a battle for 3rd.
- Leverkusen must better Atleti's result in Round 6 to move ahead of them and take 3rd.
Advice for your picks: Based on last week, Brugge's level has dropped quite considerably now that they're through so Leverkusen will fancy their chances! It's been a rough campaign for Atleti and Porto is a tough place to go, particularly since the hosts will fancy trying to steal top spot.
Group C
The situation:- Bayern are through as group winners.
- Inter are through as runners-up.
- Barca will finish 3rd and play Europa League.
- Viktoria Plzen are out.
Advice for your picks: Nothing to see here, folks. Everything is done and dusted meaning Bayern should win at home against Inter and Barca should brush Plzen aside with the pressure off.
Group D
The situation:- Drama. All teams can still go through!
- Spurs sit top so will win the group if they win in Marseille and will be through so long as they avoid defeat.
- Sporting will go through if they avoid defeat against Frankfurt and could win the group if Spurs fail to win.
- That means Frankfurt and Marseille are both in need of a win to secure their respective places in the knockouts.
Advice for your picks: Everything is still up for grabs so pick as you usually would. Both matches are expected to be even but remember Spurs and Sporting are the teams that need to avoid defeat rather than winning so if the matches are level late on, those two sides are likely to be the teams looking to settle for a point.
Group E
The situation:- Chelsea are through as group winners.
- Milan will join them as runners-up as long as they avoid defeat at home to Salzburg who will go through instead with a win.
- Dinamo are out of the Champions League but could snatch 3rd if they win and Salzburg lose.
Advice for your picks: There'll be some nerves for Milan, particularly after a defeat in Serie A at the weekend, but they should get the job done at San Siro. Even with nothing to play for, Chelsea are a lot stronger than Zagreb (despite the result in the reverse fixture!) and there are several players who will want a chance to prove themselves worthy of a place in Graham Potter's starting XI.
Group F
The situation:- Real Madrid are through and will win the group if they defeat Celtic.
- Leipzig will be through if they avoid defeat. They could top the group if they win and Madrid don't.
- Shakhtar will qualify ahead of Leipzig if they beat the Bundesliga side in Round 6.
- Celtic are out and will finish 4th.
Advice for your picks: Madrid should be comfortable at home given their quality and the context so it's all about what is essentially a knockout match between Shakhtar and Leipzig! The Bundesliga side are in far better form than they were at the start of this competition, but after winning in Leipzig, could we see Shakhtar pull off a double that sees them through? It's definitely possible...
Group G
The situation:- Manchester City are through as group winners.
- Dortmund are through as runners-up.
- Sevilla will finish 3rd and play Europa League.
- Copenhagen are out and will finish 4th.
Advice for your picks: Nothing to play for here. City should still beat Sevilla at home but won't risk Haaland who is recovering from injury. Copenhagen might see this as a chance to get a win on the board since BVB have no motivation, but both of the Danish side's home games so far have finished goalless.
Group H
The situation:- PSG and Benfica are both through.
- PSG are only top on goal difference since both meetings with Benfica finished 1-1.
- Juventus and Maccabi Haifa are both out..
- Juventus are currently only 3rd on goal difference.
- The group winners and 3rd place will therefore be decided in this round.
Advice for your picks: Though no away games are easy in the Champions League, Benfica have the more favourable final fixture on paper and are in excellent form this season. That said, PSG will also fancy their chances despite the absence of Neymar as Juventus have been dreadful in this campaign. The most likely outcome here is two away wins which would almost certainly see the table remain as it currently is.
Leverkusen loss
Liverpool loss
Marseille loss