Heineken Champions Cup: Round 5 Predictions

There are green arrows all over my Superbru leaderboards after Round 4, in which I managed 8 correct picks out of 10, beating the community average of 6.79.

Frustratingly though, I missed an ‘obvious pick’ with 85% predicting Toulouse to win away at Montpellier, but I went with home advantage. The other one I had wrong was La Rochelle winning in Glasgow, predicted by just 2% on Superbru.

There are two more rounds of group stage matches, and after that only 7 games remain, so the next fortnight is crucial in terms of pool rankings.

Here are my Heineken Champions Cup picks for Round 5.

La Rochelle v Sale

Both teams are already out of the tournament, and with Sale vying for the top four in the Gallagher Premiership, this match really won’t be a priority. La Rochelle by 16

Bath v Harlequins

The same goes for these two sides, although neither are challenging at the right end of the Premiership. Quins have won the last two against Bath, but home advantage tips the balance in Bath’s favour I think. Bath by 4

Clermont v Ulster

This is a crucial fixture in deciding the winner of Pool 3, although it looks as though both sides will qualify. You have to pick Clermont at home in Europe. Clermont by 9

Ospreys v Saracens

The off-field distractions continue for Sarries, but the Ospreys are so poor that you can’t pick them to win. Saracens by 8

Glasgow v Exeter

The Chiefs remain unbeaten in Europe, but this will be a stern test, away at Glasgow who really need to win to stand a chance of qualifying. But given that they lost at home to a French side, I’m leaning towards Exeter. Exeter by 4

Connacht v Toulouse

With Toulouse winning away from home last week, I’m considering breaking the golden rule and picking them to win again. Everyone else will, so it’s risky not to, and although Connacht is a tough place to play, Toulouse are real title contenders. Toulouse by 6

Gloucester v Montpellier

Gloucester performed well in the away fixture in November, and given that Montpellier are bottom of the pool and out of the tournament, I would expect a home win here. Gloucester by 4

Northampton v Benetton Treviso

After a fine start to the season, the Saints are slipping a little, and really need to win their last two matches to have a chance of qualifying as a best runner-up. They ought to be looking at a bonus-point victory here. Northampton by 18

Leinster v Lyon

If you can’t win in Treviso, you definitely can’t win in Dublin. This should be another victory for the home side as they look for a top seeding in the knockouts. Leinster by 23

Racing v Munster

This is a key fixture to end the round, and with an easy home tie against the Ospreys next week, a losing bonus-point for Munster should be enough to see them qualify behind Racing as pool winners. A victory would give them a shot at winning the pool, but those are hard to come by in Paris. Racing by 6

What do you think of these predictions?