French Open 2017: Preview and Predictions
Men’s Draw (Bands 1 & 2)
The 2017 tennis tour has seen something of a second wind for the old guard. The Australian Open was won by 35 year old master Roger Federer against his old rival Rafa Nadal. However, Federer has decided to skip the clay court swing, his weakest surface, to focus on Wimbledon. The orange clay of Roland Garros is famously a fortress for Nadal who is back to his best as the rest of the world’s top 5, all of whom will be aged 30 or over during the tournament, struggle for form. The big clay-court tournaments in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome often give an indication of who to watch out for at Roland Garros, so who might challenge for the French Open title, and who could be the best pick in a very tricky Band 2?Band 1
Andy Murray: Made the French Open final for the first time in 2016, but the world No.1 suffered a shock loss to Mischa Zverev in Round 4 of the Australian Open and has battled injury and illness since. Early defeats to players outside the top seeds in Monte Carlo, Madrid & Rome are signs of a real lack of confidence, but he is No.1 for a reason. Rating 7/10
Novak Djokovic: The defending champion has also been in poor form this year, suffering a shock loss to Denis Istomin in the second round in Australia and was beaten twice by Nick Kyrgios in recent tournaments. He sacked his entire coaching staff before Madrid for “shock therapy” which seems to have worked as he made the semi-final in Madrid, before losing the Rome final to Alexander Zverev. Rating 8/10
Stan Wawrinka: The 2015 French Open champion made the semi-final in Australia, and also the Indian Wells final, but form has tailed off since with losses to lower-ranked players Pablo Cuevas, Benoit Paire and John Isner early in the big clay court tournaments. A top four seeding should aid his progress into the latter stages here though. Rating 7/10
Rafael Nadal: Lost in Australian Open final to Federer after a stunning return to form, and is the undisputed master at Roland Garros winning nine titles between 2005-14. Has won on the surface in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid continuing his great form, but failed to make a clean sweep with a loss to Dominic Thiem. Nevertheless, he is the man to beat, if he doesn’t get injured like last year. Rating 9/10
Milos Raonic: The big serving Australian Open quarter-finalist has returned from his latest injury setback by making the final in a minor clay tournament in Istanbul. Clay isn’t normally his best surface, but he has still played well in defeats to Goffin in Madrid, and Alexander Zverev in the Rome Quarter Final. Rating 6/10
Dominic Thiem: Tipped as a future No.1, he lost to Goffin in the Australian Open 4th Round, and also in Monte Carlo, but beat Andy Murray in the Barcelona Semi-Final to face Nadal. He had easier run in Madrid to do the same, and finally ended Nadal’s run on clay in Rome before losing to Djokovic in the Semi. He also reached French semi-final in 2016, and should progress far again this year. Rating 7/10
Marin Cilic: Perhaps in the most topsy-turvy form of the top seeds, with Quarter Final appearances in Monte Carlo and Rome and the Istanbul title balanced by losses to Dan Evans early in the Australian Open, and Alexander Zverev in his first match in Madrid. Tricky to call, but having lost to a qualifier in the first round of the French Open last year, he’s probably a brave pick. Rating 6/10
Kei Nishikori: Regularly injured, with the latest wrist problem in March. Aggravated it to the point of withdrawing from a minor tournament in Barcelona and retiring in the Quarter Final in Madrid. Lost to Juan Martin del Potro in Rome – likelihood of injury often means he is one to avoid. Rating 5/10
Band 2
Alexander Zverev: Could have been the dark horse of the tournament, but beating Djokovic in the Final in Rome means the 20 year old German is actually the highest seed in this band and won’t be under the radar as first thought. He has beaten the majority of the top ten at some point this year, with Nadal the notable exception in Australia and Monte Carlo. If he manages the pressure of expectation he should go far here. Rating 8/10
David Goffin: Good form in the big tournaments so far this year making the Quarter Final of the Australian Open and Madrid, and the Semi Final in Monte Carlo, with defeat by Marin Cilic preventing a further last 8 appearance in Rome. Perhaps the safest option in this band if the draw is kind. Rating 9/10
Grigor Dimitrov: The Australian Open semi-finalist is in better form than 2016 but first round defeats in Monte Carlo and Rome aren’t encouraging, although the latter was to the dangerously unseeded Juan Martin del Potro. Hasn’t got past the first round at Roland Garros in last 3 attempts but will see this year as his opportunity to make amends. Rating 6/10
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Has had two minor tournament wins this year but is struggling for form since the recent birth of his child, going out in the first round at Indian Wells and Monte Carlo. However, he has reached the quarter final in each of the last three Grand Slams and on home turf it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him there again. Rating 8/10
Tomas Berdych: Has a consistently good record in Grand Slams and hasn’t lost in the first two rounds since this time four years ago, but was a victim of Roger Federer’s low seeding in Australia, being defeated by him in the 3rd round. Hasn’t made too much of an impression in the clay tournaments but should be a safe pick if he avoids a tough draw. Rating 7/10
Jack Sock: Best known for doubles but is a relatively high seeding after making the semi-final at Indian Wells and Quarter Final in Miami. Mixed results on clay, skipping Monte Carlo altogether before a first round loss in Madrid and 3rd round loss in Rome to Nadal. Yet to make a Grand Slam Quarter Final but Roland Garros is probably his best chance. Rating 6/10
Gael Monfils: One of a few players struggling with injury and has skipped several tournaments, bu has already shown he can play through this, making the US Open Semi-Final in 2016 after injuries hampered his season. Lost to Nadal in Aus Open 4th round and hasn’t made much of an impact on tour but difficult to discount him on home turf despite his injury problems. Rating 5/10
Lucas Pouille: Had his breakthrough year in 2016, but is not normally fancied on clay despite reaching the Monte Carlo semi final, and winning the less prestigious Hungarian Open. First round losses to qualifier Pierre-Hugues Herbert in Madrid, and Sam Querrey in Rome are less surprising. Rating 4/10
Others to Watch Should they get through, players seeded 17-32 will be the opponents for the top seeds in Round 3, so will be big considerations for your second set of picks. By tradition, Spaniards are best on clay, and the top seeds will want to avoid the quartet of Roberto Bautista Agut, Albert Ramos Vinolas, Pablo Carreno Busta, and 2013 finalist David Ferrer. Nick Kyrgios is starting to show his true raw talent, big serving John Isner is always a tricky opponent, and finally Juan Martin del Potro seems to be near his best after a long spell of injuries.
There are also a number of unseeded players who could cause upsets on clay. Philipp Kohlschreiber has several wins against top ten players, and the likes of Diego Schwartzmann, Sam Querrey and Steve Johnson have been performing well on tour. Be wary if your fancied pick for Round 1 draws one of these!
Women’s Draw (Bands 3 & 4)
The WTA Tour has been described as ‘predictably unpredictable’. Very few players are putting in a consistent run of form among the top seeds, and with Serena Williams withdrawing after announcing her pregnancy, the field is wide open for anyone to win. After months of speculation, Maria Sharapova has been denied wildcard entry after returning from her doping ban, and Victoria Azarenka is another high profile absentee. Only three players in Band 3 have actually won a tournament this year, and there are very few players in form in Band 4, so choose wisely!Band 3
Angelique Kerber: The German is back to No.1 after a shaky start to the year following two Grand Slam titles and another final in 2016, with a 1st Round exit to Kiki Bertens at Roland Garros the blot on her copybook. Having been beaten by a driven Eugenie Bouchard in Madrid Round 3, and unseeded Anett Kontaveit in her first match in Rome, she certainly isn’t the favourite for the tournament despite her seeding. Rating 7/10
Karolina Pliskova: The Czech’s ranking points gained in 2017 could see her form take her to No.1 in the near future, but she isn’t known for her ability on clay and has never made it past Round 2 at Roland Garros. She suffered early exits in Stuttgart and Madrid, but made the Quarter Final in Rome and is still one to watch. Rating 7/10
Simona Halep: After a poor start to the year with a First Round loss in Australia, Halep goes into the French Open as marginal favourite. Clay has been by far her best surface, with a Semi Final in Stuttgart and Final in Rome to go along with the Madrid title. Rating 8/10
Garbine Muguruza: The Spaniard is the reigning French Open champion and statistically the best player on clay in the last 3 years, but has been in poor form since the Australian Open, losing to No.73 Anett Kontaveit in Stuttgart and Timea Bacsinszky in the first round in Madrid. She did reach the Semi Final in Rome but withdrew with a neck injury, putting her participation in some doubt. For that reason, one to avoid as a first round pick, but keep an eye out in later rounds. Rating 6/10
Elina Svitolina: Moving into the top ten a week before the French Open, Svitolina is in the best form of her career with four titles on tour, and has amassed the most ranking points of any player in 2017. Her best Grand Slam performances have come at Roland Garros, and the worry of a first round loss to a qualifier in Madrid was put to bed with an emphatic defeat of Simona Halep in the Final in Rome. Rating 8/10
Dominika Cibulkova: Known as a reliable and steady performer but has lost to several players outside the top 30 this year, including qualifier Oceane Dodin in Round 2 in Madrid, and Ekaterina Makarova at the same stage in Rome. Her consistency at Grand Slams may still provide some good points though. Rating 6/10
Johanna Konta: The most improved player of 2016 has broken into the top seeds and continued her form by reaching the Australian Open quarter final and winning a major title in Miami. Clay has never been her strongest surface but this year sees her best chance to make it through the first round at Roland Garros at the third attempt. I’d avoid her purely for the first round jitters though! Rating 5/10
Svetlana Kuznetsova: After winning the 2009 French Open her form tailed off, but Kuznetsova has finally broken back into the top ten. She has suffered from injury, but reached the Indian Wells final as well as the semi-final on clay n Madrid. Her best results in Grand Slams have come at Roland Garros, so an early exit in Rome shouldn’t be too concerning. Rating 6/10
Band 4:
Agnieszka Radwanska: Another player in poor form so far this year, yet to win more than one match at a tournament since the Australian Open and also pulled out of competing in Madrid and Rome. Probably the one to avoid in this band despite only just dropping out of Band 1. Rating 4/10
Venus Williams: The Australian Open finalist is showing that age is just a number, but has withdrawn from a number of tournaments to manage her fitness. Making the Quarter Final in Rome suggests she still has the talent to reach the top. Rating 7/10
Caroline Wozniacki: Has reached three high profile finals in 2017 and is one of the in-form players on tour but tends to struggle on clay and has never done well at Roland Garros. Lost to Carla Suarez Navarro in Round 2 in Madrid before retiring with injury in Rome. Could still be a popular choice. Rating 6/10
Madison Keys: Another injury setback meant a delayed start to 2017, and form is yet to appear. First round exits in Madrid and Rome suggest a lack of fitness, but she has made at least the Fourth Round in every Grand Slam for the last two years, barring her non-appearance in Australia.Rating 5/10
Kristina Mladenovic: Another young player in form outside the top ten, with a tournament win and three other finals to her name this year. Denied Sharapova a place in the draw with victory in the Stuttgart Open semi-final, before a favourable run to the Madrid final. A first round loss in Rome was a blip but she will have the backing of a home crowd. Rating 7/10
Elena Vesnina: More regarded as a doubles player but did win the Indian Wells title earlier this year, and has been in three doubles finals at Roland Garros. Another top seed to slip up in the First Rounds of Madrid and Rome, but she is at her career highest ranking and shouldn’t be totally discounted in a very tricky band to pick from. Rating 6/10
Petra Kvitova: Just playing at Roland Garros would be an achievement after a burglary at her home resulted in a career threatening hand injury. Will make a last minute decision on participation so definitely avoid if you’re making your picks early. Rating 3/10
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Reached the Australian Open Quarter Finals and has two minor titles to her name in 2017 suggesting better form than in previous years. Another to lose in Round 1 in Madrid, but she then beat fancied clay court players Sam Stosur and Anastasija Sevastova in Rome so could make an impact. Rating 6/10
Others to Watch
With a number of the top seeds out of form, there are plenty of ‘lower’ seeds who could make an impact going into Rounds 3 & 4. Kiki Bertens and Sam Stosur were Semi Finalists last year, while Anastasija Sevastova, Daria Gavrilova and Laura Siegemund have already upset big names on tour. Carolina Garcia will have home support with Timea Bacsinszky perhaps a lower seed than she would want, and the likes of Lauren Davis and Yulia Putintseva are also in good form.
Non-seeded players who could prove a tricky draw in the first round include Eugenie Bouchard, who played like a woman possessed against Maria Sharapova recently. Lucie Safarova, Ekaterina Makarova and Andrea Petkovic have fallen away after once being top seeds but are clearly still capable of causing an upset. Anett Kontaveit made headlines in beating Angelique Kerber, and Mona Barthel has earned more ranking points in 2017 than her unseeded status would suggest. French players on home turf (Alize Cornet, Oceane Dodin), and Spaniards who are naturals on clay (Lara Arrubarrena, Sara Sorribes Tormo) should also be stumbling blocks to watch out for.
By Matt Bartlett
Thanks to Matt for helping us with our picks. Make sure you join in and follow all the action for the French Open.
Tackler
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Great summary. Jeu, set et Matt!!
24 May 17:16
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Bomber
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An excellent preview of the French Open, thanks Matt. SuperBru, any chance of splitting the bands into 4 for men and 4 for Women until the quarter finals ? Otherwise Band 1 for the men is Nadal and no-one else which makes it very boring.
25 May 20:47
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OB!!..(O Bliksem!!)
92,761 caps
I agree 30 May 17:49
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Swampy
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Thanks Matt, a handy guide for the clueless like me!
26 May 10:09
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Malboer
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You are a True Legend Bru Matt Bartlett awesome summary and a great read i learned so much by reading this! I am going with Dominic Thiem and Simona Halep to be the French Open Champs :D
27 May 03:56
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Superdave
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Nadal will win without a doubt
6 Jun 14:28
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